Energy analysts warn that the Iran ceasefire is not likely to alleviate acute signs of stress in the physical oil market.

Shipping data posted by maritime intelligence company Windward shows 171 crude tankers are bound for the U.S. Gulf to load crude oil cargoes, which compares with about 110 in a typical month.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 50% since the U.S.-Iran war began on February 28, with WTI crude sitting at $102 per barrel as of April 13, 2026. The S&P 500 is essentially flat year-to-date, down 0.

May WTI crude oil (CLK26) on Monday closed up +2.51 (+2.60%), and May RBOB gasoline (RBK26) closed up +0.0787 (+2.59%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled sharply higher on Monday after peace talks between the US and Iran broke down over the weekend and President Trump imposed a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude-oil prices trimmed their earlier gains as President Donald Trump's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kicked off at 10 a.m. Eastern. U.S.-traded West Texas Intermediate crude was up 5% at $101 a barrel in recent trade,

The U.S. naval blockade traps 20% of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas behind the Strait of Hormuz. With the blockade in place, Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea that rely on the Middle East are looking elsewhere to replenish their dwindling energy supplies.

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The price of physical crude oil cargoes for ‌prompt delivery to Europe hit a record high near $150 a barrel on Monday and those for Africa hit new peaks, according to LSEG data and traders, as the U.S.